So, I called the House for the Republicans at 8:43 PM Eastern time. CNN was nearly in tears, Nate Silver had lowered the odds of Republicans holding the House from 1 in 15 to 1 in 2, and there had been an eight-point turnaround from the pre-election polls favoring the Democratic candidate for Florida governor. Of the two key early House races involving vulnerable Republican incumbents, the one in Virginia went Democrat, the one in Kentucky held.
Game over. Right?
Nope. History has been against the party of the president. It would have been a stunning victory if the Republicans had held the House. Right now, this is how it stands:
- House: Democrats +33
- Senate: Republicans +2
For reference, in 2010, the Magic Negro got the following results.
- House: Republicans +63 (!)
- Senate: Republicans +6
Though, "Better Than Obama" is quite a low standard. Anyway, it's not a stunning Blue Wave and it's not a complete victory for the God Emperor.
The more interesting question is: Who is going to challenge Trump in 2020? Will the Crooked One return? Will it be the 1/1024th Oppressed Woman? Will it be Bad Touch Biden? It doesn't matter who it is. One thing is certain. The entertainment value is going to be off the charts.
The Washington Examiner:
Almost without exception, voters punish the president’s party in congress when his first midterm comes around. Recent presidents have suffered much more severe chastisements after two years of unified party control. In 1994, Bill Clinton’s party lost 54 House seats and its House (and Senate) majorities. In 2010, Barack Obama’s party lost 63 seats and its House majority.
And so in the run-up to election 2018, it seemed pretty clear that Republicans would have to take their lumps. And for those who watched or read the news, and noticed the media’s evidently infinite revulsion to Trump and all Republicans, it probably seemed like those lumps would be quite bad.
But despite an extremely hostile news media, Republicans came through it pretty well. They won key governors’ races in presidential states like Florida and Ohio. They gained a handful of Senate seats, despite being badly outspent. They also won many of the House races they were expected to lose, giving them an easier path to regain their majority in the future.
In short, Republicans’ relatively strong performance in this extremely high-turnout midterm is a strong sign that the public is not nearly as annoyed about the Trump presidency as coastal elite liberals seemed to think they were.