## The pain isn't over

##### Mar 23, 2020

What I wrote on March 18, 2020:

- Assuming that the data is correct, the mortality rate of H1N1 was 0.021%. This means that 1 person out of every 4,876 infected would die from the virus.
- Today, the mortality rate of the Coronavirus is at a staggering 4%. This means that 1 person out of every 25 infected is dying from this virus. COVID-19 is, at the moment,
**195 times more lethal**than H1N1.

Or in other words: If COVID-19 infects 60 million people in America, then more will die from it than the total number of Americans who were killed in all the US wars **combined**. This virus has the potential to be more lethal for America than **all** her wars over 250 years.

The USA has 32,000 ICU beds, which puts it right in between at one ICU bed for every 10,000 people. This means that if the mitigation calculations are correct, the medical resources would be overwhelmed by a factor of 8x, thereby leading to fatalities in excess of 2 million.

Yup. My basic arithmetic put the total US fatalities at 2.4 million; assuming that a) COVID-19 infects roughly 60 million people in America, and b) the mortality rate holds at 4%. The fact that people smarter than me are getting similar fatality numbers is extremely alarming.

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