NOTR left a comment on this post yesterday. My response follows.
"While I agree with you that the ISI has a sinister history and was the primary supporter of the Taliban, I question the veractity of the fact the Paki's are supplying Stinger batteries. This is a fairly sophisticated item that if true means simply the ISI is passing them on from the US."
Are you implying that the US has given these missiles to the ISI recently? I don't see the US doing that considering the history of the ISI. Also, imagine the intelligence and diplomatic scandal that would erupt if the Brits and Canadians found out that they were being shot at by American-provided ammo.
If, however, these missiles were given to the ISI before 9/11, then the US is soon going to reap the rewards of realpolitik. Either way, it's an ugly situation.
"There is little question the ISI is pro Wahabi and deeply supported by the Saudi's. But their focus has always been on Kashmir and defeating India. I wonder if this were true how it computes in their self-interest calculation?"
Speculation Alert: It's important to note that the ISI cares about its self-interest -- it doesn't give a fig about Pakistan. The ISI has provided funds for Islamists in Jammu and Kashmir. It has even been accused of terrorist activities in mainland India. Plus, it provided support for the Taliban. This group has a flamethrower policy for practically every neighbor of Pakistan.
ISI would ideally not want a non-Islamist and a US-supporting government in Kabul. If it couldn't succeed at preventing that, then, at the very least, it would want to make life for the Allies utterly miserable. Ultimately, it's about making the cost of democracy high -- in terms of blood and treasure. Of course, the ISI would only do such a thing covertly.
The ISI, which is basically made up of military officers, is one of the most despicable aspects of Pakistani society exceeded only by the madrassas. Military men get a mansion, a car, servants and send their kids to foreign countries for "studies" from a nation where the average wage is south of $3000.
In the West, the civilians control the military. It wouldn't be wrong to say, that the opposite is true in Pakistan.
A thought: There's an overall advantage for Musharraf in all this. He looks almost sane when compared to the mayhem in Kashmir, the Islamist hell in Afghanistan, and the coming Armageddon in Iran. His moderate image is further enhanced.
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